Fragmentation favors Russia
As the United States steps back from its transatlantic commitments, EU member states are racing to rebuild their militaries — but on their own terms. France, Germany, and Italy are resisting joint procurement, preferring bilateral deals that protect national defence industries. Poland, meanwhile, is purchasing American fighter jets and tanks. The result is a patchwork of national strategies with no strategic coherence, and Russia is paying close attention. The collapse of the European Drone Wall — an EU flagship project designed to counter Russian hybrid attacks — illustrates the problem. Disputes over technology and governance killed the initiative, exposing deep divisions in Europe's approach to collective defence.
Rhetoric outpaces reality
Castellanos-Jankiewicz warns that the gap between political rhetoric and military reality is itself a security risk. When European leaders claim unity they cannot back militarily, they create the conditions for miscalculation by adversaries. “What Europe cannot do is claim unity while pursuing contradictory national policies,” he writes. “In that scenario, miscalculation is the most likely outcome.” Castellanos-Jankiewicz also raises a deeper concern: Europe may be preparing for the wrong kind of conflict. European spending focuses heavily on conventional weapons, even as Russia's strategy prioritises cyberattacks, disinformation, and attacks on critical infrastructure — a mismatch that compounds the problem.
Urgent reforms needed
The op-ed calls for three concrete reforms: mandatory joint procurement for major capability projects, a permanent EU Defence Industrial Coordination Body with real authority, and transparent burden-sharing formulas to replace ad-hoc negotiations.
This research connects to the Asser Institute's Project on Rearming Europe with Legal Accountability (RELY), an NWO-funded initiative led by Dr. Castellanos-Jankiewicz which examines the legal frameworks governing European rearmament and defence cooperation.
Read the full op-ed.
